Zelenskyy's dream, Netanyahu's reality

For the past four years, there was not even a single USA-based question on the Political Science and International Relations optional paper of the Civil Services Examination. When the results of the presidential election came out from Washington in November last year, the aspirant community realized the drought would soon be stalled. The obvious reason is the character and attitude of the man who is elected and the possibility of a far more eventful period than his predecessor. From businessmen to scholars and meme makers to common man, everyone is keen for this four years. Even the election period was live with an assassination attempt, replacement in opposition candidate, and outright assistance from some big names —all which culminated in something notable—beating a woman candidate who could have entered the White House as the first American president marking history, for the second time.

The man who carried an America First policy elevated his vision to Make America Great Again this instance. Even his first term saw an inward-looking policy to safeguard state exchequer and efforts to retain the only superpower status effortlessly. Condemning Iraq invasion as the greatest blunder in American history, pulling out troops from Afghanistan (not completely), tariff skirmishes between nations, and skepticism on international bodies including UN organs are some evidences. The abhorrent tariffs declared on several countries right away assuming power indicates that the intentions have only amplified this time. Since my intention through this blog is not about tariff and trade wars, I save that for another time.

All said, what the world was eagerly looking for was how is the man going to deal with two major ongoing wars—the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestinian (Hamas). He added colors by saying "24 hours is enough" for him to solve the Russia and Ukraine conflict and making usual frivolous statement by proposing Palestinians to leave Gaza and convert it into "the Riviera of the Middle East". Here starts our blog’s core area: did he succeed in solving the former crisis? How is West Asia today? Let us begin with Russia–Ukraine.

Donald Trump’s intervention in Russia - Ukraine has brought serious changes in the normally aligned USA–Europe relationship than ever in the past decade. Europe and USA-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) which is basically a defensive security group was blatantly criticising Russia for the invasion. Ukraine was literally sustaining due to the succour provided by the group and USA particularly. If you closely trace the events in the war, you will be convinced that whenever there was a delay in assistance from the side of USA, Ukraine has suffered. However, Trump was reluctant to criticise Russia completely. Now the tables are turned and Trump is compelling more on Ukraine to come to a deal. He even went overboard by calling Zelensky a "dictator" and vacillated later when media questioned. We also saw harsh exchange of words between Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at Oval Office which was followed by a US–Ukraine mineral deal for any further US assistance. It is common sense that NATO without active USA support is impotent today. Thus, ensuring support of the superpower is of utmost importance for Zelensky. Attacks and counter-attacks are continuing, Ukraine is not ready for a truce without regaining four eastern oblast which are currently under Russian control. A war directly led by NATO was a "heaven on earth" for Zelensky, but that heaven is reserved for another person a few miles away, whom some considers as  despot"- Bibi Netanyahu.

In one of my recent tweets in X, I mentioned that Netanyahu has succeeded for the first time since the brutal October 7 by pulling USA directly into confrontation with Iran. When he declared war against Hamas, there were two declared objectives—one was to eliminate Hamas and second to bring back all hostages. Even after reducing Gaza to ashes, Hamas is alive. The reason is more than a group— it is an ideology and an emotion. Destroying such an intangible thing as of now is not possible, and the best Netanyahu can desire is the group shedding its tooth and deteriorates as its predecessors PLA and Fateh. Sadly, the second objective is also not met. A three-phase ceasefire deal was signed with exchange of hostages mentioned. However, soon after the first phase it was stalled as non-compliance was alleged by each other and tension resurged. The final objective was to drag USA into the war. It is true that USA engaged in operations in the region since October 7, but all those were against the proxies of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. I’m sure by now all of you are familiar with the names, yes - the Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. But a direct engagement was a cherry at the top for Netanyahu. From Iran’s perspective, the fall of ally Assad in Syria - which was a link between Hezbollah - has exacerbated the situation. Additionally, the recent edition unprovoked Israel attack on states superior commanders and nuclear facilities has lit up questions of regime change which is the worst they (regime) can afford today. Also, it is true that Iran has succeeded in surpassing the celebrated defence systems of Israel and it is believed that it is at this juncture the USA - the best friend - decided for direct confrontation and hit three nuclear facilities. Remember Iran is a member of International Atomic Energy agency (IAEA) - UN watchdog for nuclear plants and related technology and a signatory to Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - intended to prevent nuclear proliferation.

Some of you might think why I skipped highlighting Iran nuclear deal. The primary reason is I don’t think failure to reach consensus was the root cause behind the attack because we can expect one in near future, and secondly it requires another dedicated blog. Trump’s intervention is welcoming criticism from Congress (similar to Lok Sabha) for not taking prior approval before attack and Conservative Republicans who are least interested in spending dollars outside the country. Yesterday’s Iran attack on USA bases in Iraq, Syria, and Qatar has thankfully followed a ceasefire. I hope similar ceasefires soon to be declared in all regions where innocents are fighting. Fingers crossed.