What's in West

Since the inception of the latest edition of the Israeli-Palestine War, I have been waiting for the right time to write about the changing situation in West Asia. However, the recent incidents are compelling me to add a few more paragraphs, and I fear adding more if the wait is continued. West Asia, or the Middle East (for Westerners), is regaining the level of attention that it had assumed for decades. For some reason, silence was hoping to be anchored on the shores of West Asia; unfortunately, the reality is contrasting.

 The reasons mentioned above include wide-ranging geopolitical movements. Let's look into them one by one. The foremost is the re-emergence of talks between the USA and Iran on nuclear proliferation. Iran was accused of rising nuclear capacity, primarily by the US-led West. This ended in 2015 with the formation of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal)) between Iran, the P5 (Permanent five members of United Nations Security Council ie; USA, UK, Russia, China, and France), and Germany. Iran agreed to cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% and eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium. However, chaos reestablished with the Donald Trump administration withdrawing from the deal in 2018 alleging Iran's misconduct and noncompliance to the deal and the USA's failure to hold prominence in the region. Some consider this to be a part of Trump's inward-looking attitude, similar to his take on migration, globalization, etc. Whatever the Biden administration was on the path of talks for the revival of JCPOA, thereby desanctioning Iran, which will be a huge relief to their economy.

 

The Abraham Accord (2020), often considered to be a breakthrough in West Asian politics, can be followed as the next 'reason'. It gave signs of Israel and the Gulf normalizing ties, at least for economic sake. The US-led decree involved the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel. Even though Saudi Arabia, the big brother in the region, was absent, it is common sense to believe that their silent support was ensured. Thus, the overall relationship was showing positive signs. "Another reason for hope"

 

After the Abraham Accord, nothing considerable arose in the region thanks to the pandemic and post-pandemic economic slowdown. The period also saw the USA divert attention, resources, and men towards the Indo-Pacific. The rising economic threat from China and its aggressive practices in the Indo-Pacific are the major reasons behind the shift. The ironical withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, thereby leaving the land for the Taliban, has to be read between the lines. In addition, the mounting public debt and outflow of money for external intervention are creating public outrage in the USA. On the other side, China, with its money, wolf warrior diplomacy, and BRI (belt and road initiative), was trying to fill the vacuum created by the USA's absence. The deal they brokered between historical rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia is the best example. As part of the truce, prisoners are swapped, and the Iranian administration is likely to re-examine the presence of Houthis in Yemen.

 

Like the final nail in the coffin, the G20 in India can be considered a contributor to bringing peace to the region. Assuming the unofficial leadership of the global south (underdeveloped countries), India has succeeded in raising its concerns on the global stage. The summit concluded by adopting a joint declaration accepted by all 20 parties, which was quite eccentric because of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. One of the most exciting outcomes of the G20 was the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), connecting Asia to Europe via water, rail, and land ways. Primarily, the project can expedite and reduce the cost of shipments. Further mentioning of the positives of the project needs another separate blog. Some of the major West Asian ports involved in the project are Haifa (Israel), Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), and Jabel Ali (UAE). I mentioned them just to show how the project is related to Western Asian politics.

 

However, as mentioned earlier, the reality is different. The current situation confirms the realist stand that war is inevitable in a sovereign state because all they desire is their well-being. This egoistic and selfish attitude leads to war. However, it is ironic to realize that this is the same reason why Thomas Hobbes justified the formation of a state. They attack others because they don't want to be attacked—a classic realist argument.

 

The tensions began to escalate with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 and the capture of hostages. Israel, giving no space for delay, retaliated with a disproportionate attack on Palestinians. It is widely understood that the surprise Hamas attack was a result of discomfort from the rising bonhomie between Israel and the Gulf through the Abrahamic accord and backdoor talks by neglecting the Palestinian issue. On the other side, Netanyahu is taking a firm stand to eliminate Hamas from the land, even after all these protests and condemnations around the world. The intensity of the Hamas attack is considered a huge humiliation by Israel for which to an extent a good share of the public also asks for revenge, plus the USA's backing on a multilateral level also enables them to do what they are doing, at least for the time being.

But what is retreating from a complete ceasefire similar to the temporary one we saw on November 24–30 is the recent events in the Red Sea and Lebanon territory by Houthis and Hezbollah, respectively. Both of these Iran-backed militias are provoking tensions in the region, which will only counter any peace mission. The Houthi attack on ships in the Red Sea, one of the busiest ship routes in the world, has welcomed global concerns.

 

The recent bombardment in Iran's Kerman city during the memorial event of Qasem Soleimani, former commander of the Quds Force, by the Islamic State added another layer of complexity to the ongoing issues. Qasem Soleimani was a nightmare for the Islamic State because of his relentless effort to eliminate them using Shia militias from Syria and Iraq. He also got succor from the USA, but the very same USA killed him in 2020, accusing him of his alignment with terrorist outfits. Iran's diversion of focus to Israel through backing Hezbollah in Lebanon has enabled IS to launch an attack. As the attack showcases the security vulnerabilities of Iran, the hitherto absent Islamic State coming back to the scene again will surely change the political dynamics.

 

From an Indian perspective, some things have changed and some have not. In the Israel-Palestine issue, we are pressing for an immediate ceasefire and holding strongly to the conventional stand of a two-state solution where Palestinians will have a dignified life. However, the tensions in the Indian Ocean region are dealt with the utmost care. The best example is the recapture of a ship by pirates a few days ago. The region is crucial for the country's economic, security, and political interests; thus, any kind of disturbance has to be mitigated swiftly and without fail. Along with that is the String of Pearls initiative of China, which can circumvent India. To challenge this, we have mooted projects like INSTC (International North South Transport Corridor) and the nascent IMEC. Thus, bringing back normalcy to West Asia is vital for us.

 

The judicial reforms mooted by Benjamin Netanyahu are acting as a boomerang. The law passed by Kneset (the Israeli parliament) last year had been struck down by the Supreme Court. Netanyahu is facing public outcry, claiming the return of hostages, ending the war, and finally removing the government. Also to note, it is ironic that the political clout of the prime minister deteriorated even before the war. The USA is going for the presidential election this year. The return of Trump, USA hegemony, and relations with China—all these carry weight in global politics. Doubtlessly, the coming days will have a say in West Asia's future.

 

All views are personal
Open for criticism
Nithal S Rahman
nithalrahman@gmail.com